should i just paint it in PS?
whats a good workflow for something like this?
I am comfortable in houdini, i could also make an animated texture, though i dont think its the most optimal way to do it.
I took a stab at this with IlluGen. Here’s the file: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1UhiBvhbOwcVpM2GgE3xywgY9wfKHxkaW/view?usp=sharing
Basically made little pieces of dirt with some interesting coloring.
The graph itself is very simple. Create a shape and distort it → Use fractal node to distribute it within a masked area. Use directional blur to make it look 3D → Blend the original and blurred objects → use color ramp with a real dirt gradient → Alpha merge in a thresholded alpha channel.
You could then spawn a few of these with some stretching etc in your game engine presumably. Could also choose to add blur in the texture itself to make it look more in motion if you’d like.>
Could go a bit farther to add in something like some smoky noise behind all of this to make include some of the finer particles and such in a hit like this and give it more volume.
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thank you for the detailed explanation 
maybe using some grunge-noises from substance designer together with some level-adjustments to erode away a little bit of the softness. but these textures usually also have some soft areas as very fine dust is kicked up too.
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My greatest tip on that is using real life water splashes and just touching them up a lil. No added work necessarily and it adds SOOO much 
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